By : Toni Ervianto
Pollster Populi Center has released the results of its latest survey, stating that Jakarta gubernatorial candidate Basuki Ahok Tjahaja Purnama beat fellow hopeful Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono in terms of popularity after the first official debate.
The survey, which was conducted from Jan. 14 to 19, one day after the debate organized by the Jakarta General Elections Commission, stated that 36.7 percent of respondents preferred Ahok, while Agus, who was earlier the frontrunner in several surveys, was favored by 25 percent of people surveyed and candidate Anies Baswedan was chosen by 28.5 percent and about 9.8 percent of respondents remained undecided about their choice.
Nona said Ahok and Anies popularity increased after the debate, while Agus decreased. In the Populi Centers previous survey in December, she said Ahok had garnered 34.2 percent, while Agus had 32 percent and Anies 25 percent.
Other pollsters, such as the Indonesian Survey Circle and Poltracking, earlier consistently ranked Agus, Ahok and Anies in the first, second and third positions, respectively, in their surveys.
The director of Jakarta-based polling company Populi Center, Usep S. Ahyar, says he believes the ongoing blasphemy trial of Jakarta Governor Basuki "Ahok" Tjahaja Purnama may boost the incumbent's electability.
"As the trial continues, people can get more of an understanding about this case, which can benefit the incumbent. As an example, people can see that witnesses against Ahok are less competent," Usep told The Jakarta Post on Wednesday.
Usep added that, according to a recent survey initiated by the Populi Center, Ahok had his loyal voters who are rational enough to see behind this blasphemy case.
Sumber : Google
They would keep voting for Ahok, despite the blasphemy accusation, because they were satisfied with his performance as governor.
Usep released its latest survey, conducted in mid-December, which said that 34.2 percent of 600 respondents would vote for Ahok and his running mate Djarot Saiful Hidayat in the election.
Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono and Sylviana Murni followed the incumbent with 32.3 percent support and Anies Baswedan and Sandiaga Uno with 25 percent. Usep also noted that Ahok and his team had wisely used the trial to increase his electability.
Meanwhile, legal cases implicating Islam Defenders Front (FPI) leader Rizieq Shihab will likely boost Jakarta Governor Basuki Ahok Tjahaja Purnamas electability, which has been in decline according to recent surveys since the start of his blasphemy trial, researchers have said.
Rizieq, an ardent critic of Ahoks, has been reported to police for allegedly dishonoring the countrys first president, Sukarno, and Pancasila, the nations founding principles. He has also been reported for allegedly defaming Christianity. A senior political researcher with the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Syamsuddin Haris, said Rizieqs alleged involvement in those cases would lead the public to see Ahok in a positive light after prolonged hatred toward the governor, who stands accused of having insulted Islam. Ahok still has a chance to win the election, although I predict the electoral process will include two rounds, said Syamsuddin.
Pollster must be honest, transparent and neutral
Basically, a survey results is needed by concurrent local elections candidate to have information about their possibility to win in elections. Besides that, a survey results could be made to construct strategy to win the elections.
Because of that, pollster institute must be honest, transparent and neutral because if pollster institute doesnt honest or transparent about their research methodology, about a pollster funds and about the purpose will take through these survei.
The above questions is an urgent because sometimes uncredible pollster institute may grow along side an elections process, and its could be made un professional survei to downgrade a political rival and in other side to upgrade a candidate who paid their survei.
The manuever of uncredible and unprofessional pollster institute could be triggered some of impacts such as mass and sympathizer candidates brawl between other mass and symphatizer candidates; mass and symphatizer candidates which unhappy with survei results could be reported a pollster institute to General Election Commission (KPU) or Police etc.
Actually, a survey which is done by a credible and a registered pollster institute could be shown the trend of people choices in next concurrent local elections, because their survey has done through a right survey methodology so that its results could be approxcimately same with a current situation.
Essentially, although among a pollster institute have same and right survey methodology, they had a different results. The differences among them could be based on a time survey difference; a survey questions; and a specific moment which to be basic idea why a survey was taken.
After the debate among Jakarta Governor candidates which organized by the Jakarta General Elections Commission, Ahok-Djarot has taken a higher percentages than Anies-Sandiaga or Agus H Yudhoyono-Sylviana Murni percentages.
This survei results could be shown that Ahok-Djarot as an incumbent took a people support because they had been shown their capability and their outcome since they lead Jakarta.
Actually, the ongoing blasphemy trial of Jakarta Governor Basuki "Ahok" Tjahaja Purnama will boost the incumbent's electability, because those process could be shown that Ahok was a public figure who honoured a trial process that other pressure strategy to solve his problems.
Eventhough Ahok is lead than Anies and Agus at recent pollster, Ahok was changed his arrogant attitude (most of people say that) to be a humble attitude. If Ahok could be done it, Jakartas resident will choose him at next concurrent local elections.
The lesson learnt which will be learnt by Ahoks opponent groups are they must be honoured whatever trial outcome from Ahoks case. If Ahoks opponent didnt take judges decision, its could be made Ahoks electability to win the next Jakarta Gubernatorial elections on February 15, 2017 is more higher than other candidates.
I think Ahoks supporters and Ahoks opponent groups should be maintained their attitude to make ongoing blasphemy trial always can run and end with happy ending.
We must take care our next the sustainability of existance of Indonesia, because we could see from Ahoks case, being admitted or not, we had been promoted a contra democracy and pluralism values.
We had been delivered hoax and hatred-speech among each others, if those didnt stop, its could be endangered our national integration.
The writer is an Indonesia strategic issue observer. Lives in East Jakarta. One of founder of Cersia, Jakarta.
